German Central Bank Cuts GDP Growth Forecast to 0.4%
The Bundesbank revised its German economic growth forecast downward, citing weak export demand and high industrial energy costs.
German Central Bank Cuts GDP Growth Forecast to 0.4%
The German Federal Bank (Bundesbank) published an updated macroeconomic forecast, cutting its expected German GDP growth this year from 1.1% to 0.4%.
Reasons for the revision
Bank analysts point to three key factors:
- Export decline — demand for German goods from China and the US fell 8% year-on-year
- Energy costs — industrial tariffs remain 34% above the pre-crisis 2021 level
- Demographic pressure — the skilled labour shortage has reached 1.2 million vacancies
Comparison with other forecasts
| Organisation | 2026 Forecast |
|---|---|
| Bundesbank | 0.4% |
| IMF | 0.7% |
| IfW Kiel Institute | 0.5% |
Regulator's comment
Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel called on the government to accelerate structural reforms: 'Germany cannot afford another lost year. We need investment in infrastructure and digitalisation right now.'
Sources
- Monatsbericht Mai 2026— Bundesbank
- Germany cuts growth outlook as exports falter— Financial Times